Learning Hub / Bonus B3
Bonus unit B3 · learning track · not part of any score
Hometown practice: one impact chain, one page
Everyone in the challenge forecasts Boston, wherever they live. This unit turns toward home: choose one way weather or climate touches your region, and write a one-page preparation card with a question, evidence, what is still uncertain, one small reversible action and when to check official information.
挑战赛里所有人都预测 Boston,无论住在哪里。本单元转向家乡:选一条天气或气候影响你所在地区的路径,写一页准备卡:一个问题、证据、仍不确定什么、一个小而可逆的行动,以及何时查看官方信息。
45–60 minutesReal example data: Boston winters, RCC-ACISCard stays in this browser
Privacy and safety. Use a city or region only. Never write a home address, school, class, name, phone or email on the card. Do not go to storm, flood, roof or electrical sites. Any finance topic is for learning only and never a buy or sell signal. The card is not a warning: official warnings come from your local weather service.
隐私与安全。只写城市或地区。卡片上永远不写家庭住址、学校、班级、姓名、电话或邮箱。不去风暴、洪水、屋顶或电气现场。财经话题只作学习,绝不是买卖信号。准备卡不是预警:官方预警来自当地气象部门。
Goals and exit evidence
- Narrow a big topic to one impact chain and one testable question.
- Name the comparison you need and the things that could confuse it (season, technology, prices, behaviour).
- Choose one low-cost, reversible action and the trigger for checking official information.
Exit evidence: a one-page preparation card. Teachers give formative feedback; it is never graded or ranked. Red line: never write a climate link as a certain local disaster.
- 把宏大话题收窄成一条影响链和一个可检验问题。
- 说出需要的对照,以及可能混淆的因素(季节、技术、价格、行为)。
- 选一个低成本、可逆的行动,以及查看官方信息的触发条件。
出口证据:一页准备卡。教师给形成性反馈;不打分、不排名。红线:不把气候关联写成当地必然灾害。
Story hook
A news headline says: "El Niño winter means lower heating bills!" Your aunt in another country asks whether she should change anything at home. You cannot answer for her house, but you can show her how to ask a better question, what evidence would help, and one sensible small step.
新闻标题说:"厄尔尼诺冬季,取暖费更低!"住在别国的姑姑问你家里要不要做什么改变。你没法替她的房子回答,但可以示范怎样提一个更好的问题、什么证据有帮助,以及一个合理的小步骤。
Concepts
1 · An impact chain
Weather or climate → something that responds (heating need, crop growth, solar output) → people. Each arrow is a claim that needs its own evidence.
天气或气候 → 会响应的事物(取暖需求、作物生长、光伏发电)→ 人。每一个箭头都是需要各自证据的说法。
2 · Confounders
Energy use also depends on insulation, prices and who is at home; harvests depend on irrigation and technology. A fair comparison holds those steady or names them.
用能还取决于保温、价格、在家人数;收成还取决于灌溉和技术。公平比较要把它们固定住,或者明确写出来。
3 · Reversible and low cost
Good first actions are cheap and easy to undo: check a torch, update a contact list, read the official preparedness page with an adult. Big decisions belong to adults with official guidance.
好的第一步便宜且容易撤回:检查手电、更新联络清单、和成年人一起读官方准备页面。重大决定由成年人依官方指导作出。
Impact chains to choose from (pick exactly one)
| Direction | Testable question | Comparison or limit |
|---|
Worked example: is one winter enough evidence?
Take the home-energy chain for Boston. Heating need follows winter temperature, so the first evidence is how much Boston winters vary. The table is computed live from the RCC-ACIS monthly record (December–February mean, °F).
以 Boston 的家庭能源链为例。取暖需求跟随冬季气温,所以第一份证据是 Boston 冬季的变化幅度。下表由页面从 RCC-ACIS 月度记录实时计算(12–2 月平均,°F)。
| Quantity | Value |
|---|---|
| Loading data… | |
Reading: winters differ a lot from year to year for many reasons. A card that says "this winter will be mild, so we can skip preparation" claims more than one index can support.
读法:冬季之间因多种原因差异很大。写"今年冬天会暖,所以不用准备"的卡片,说得比一个指数能支持的更多。
Activity · Build your preparation card
Check for understanding
1. Rewrite as a testable question: "El Niño ruins harvests."改写成可检验的问题:"厄尔尼诺毁掉收成。"
Answer
Example: in region R, for crop C over a fixed list of years, how did yields in seasons with a rainfall anomaly compare with other seasons, given irrigation and technology changes? It names place, variable, comparison and confounders.
示例:在地区 R、作物 C 的一组固定年份中,降雨异常季节的产量与其他季节相比如何,并考虑灌溉与技术变化?它写明了地点、变量、对照和混杂因素。
2. Which is a better first action: buying a generator, or checking that torches work and the family contact list is current?哪个更适合作为第一步:买发电机,还是检查手电能用、家庭联络清单是最新的?
Answer
The torch and contact list: cheap, reversible and useful in many situations. A big purchase is an adult decision based on official guidance, not on this card.
手电和联络清单:便宜、可逆、适用多种情况。大额购买是成年人依据官方指导的决定,不依据这张卡。
3. A learner writes their street name in the region box. What should happen?有学生在地区栏写了街道名。应当怎么做?
Answer
Replace it with the city or region. Street, school or home details never belong on a learning card, even a private one.
改成城市或地区。街道、学校或家庭信息永远不写在学习卡上,即使是私密的卡。
4. "Electricity prices rose in a warm winter, so warm winters raise prices." What is missing?"暖冬里电价上涨了,所以暖冬让电价上涨。"缺了什么?
Answer
Other causes: supply, policy, fuel markets, exchange rates. One year is one case. And this is a learning analysis only, never a trading signal.
其他原因:供给、政策、燃料市场、汇率。一年只是一个案例。而且这只是学习分析,绝不是交易信号。
Classroom: 20-minute version
| 0–4 | Each team chooses one impact chain from the table.每队从表中选一条影响链。 |
| 4–10 | Write the question and one source card (name, date).写问题和一张来源卡(名称、日期)。 |
| 10–16 | Fill uncertainty, action and trigger; run the privacy check.填不确定、行动和触发条件;运行隐私检查。 |
| 16–20 | Peer check against the red line: no certain local disaster claims.同伴按红线互查:不写当地必然灾害。 |
Full 60-minute lesson plan
| 0–10 | The headline in the story hook: what would we need to know?故事里的标题:我们需要知道什么? |
| 10–20 | Worked example on Boston winters; draw the chain with confounders.Boston 冬季例题;画出带混杂因素的链条。 |
| 20–45 | Teams build their cards; teacher circulates with feedback.各队制作准备卡;教师巡视给反馈。 |
| 45–55 | Gallery walk with sticky-note questions (no names on cards).展廊浏览,用便签提问(卡上不写姓名)。 |
| 55–60 | Revise one line; five numbers.修改一行;填五个数。 |
Age bands
10–12
Home-observation track: a 7-day weather log, one chart and the card. Adults help find official pages.
家乡观察轨:7 天记录表、一张图和准备卡。成年人帮忙找官方页面。
13–15
One impact chain with a named comparison and two confounders.
一条影响链,写明对照与两个混杂因素。
16–17
Impact-research track: a historical comparison with time lags and uncertainty, and a data-version note.
影响研究轨:带时间滞后与不确定性的历史比较,并记录资料版本。
No-device alternative. A printed card template with the six boxes; teams use a printed official preparedness leaflet as their evidence source.
无设备替代。打印六格卡片模板;各队以打印的官方防灾准备单页作为证据来源。
Five numbers
Math map for this unit
| SP-L2-COND | Conditional probability |
| MD-L2-EST | Estimation and reasonableness |
| RP-L2-MULTADD | Multiplicative vs additive reasoning |
| XC-L2-ASKED | Report the quantity asked |
Sources: SOURCES.json · impact chains and card structure from spec 47.