RUDO™ Learning Hub · Season 1

El Niño Learning Season 2026–27

Everyone forecasts the same thing: tomorrow's high temperature at Boston Logan airport. The forecast is sealed before the cutoff and checked against the NWS daily climate report. Around that small, honest loop sits a bigger question: the tropical Pacific is in a strong El Niño, so what can, and what cannot, one city's weather tell us about it?

所有人预测同一件事:明天 Boston Logan 机场的最高气温。预测在截止前封存,再用 NWS 每日气候报告检验。围绕这个小而诚实的循环,有一个更大的问题:热带太平洋正处于强厄尔尼诺,一个城市的天气能告诉我们什么、不能告诉我们什么?

Current ENSO status comes from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, not from us. As of the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issued 8 October 2026: El Niño Advisory; the next discussion was scheduled for 12 November 2026. Recheck the CPC discussion page before you teach.

当前 ENSO 状态以 NOAA 气候预测中心(CPC)为准,不由本站判断。截至 CPC 2026 年 10 月 8 日发布的 ENSO 诊断讨论:厄尔尼诺警报(El Niño Advisory);下一期计划于 2026 年 11 月 12 日发布。上课前请到 CPC 讨论页重新核对。

Learning path: six units, six rounds

Each unit is one 60-minute lesson plus one 20-minute round touch (seal before the cutoff, review after the reveal). Order: task first, short reading on demand, then a piece of work. Units are free and need no account; your progress is saved only in this browser.

每单元一次 60 分钟课 + 一次 20 分钟轮次接触(截止前封存,揭晓后复盘)。顺序:先任务,按需短读,再做作品。单元免费、无需账号;进度只保存在本浏览器。

The 20-minute round flow (same for every unit)

3 min	Look at the station and the climate day; each learner says what exactly is being forecast.看站点与观测日;每人说清「预测的是什么」。
5 min	Look at public data or a historical sample the teacher provides; estimate a high first.看教师提供的公开数据或历史样本,先估一个最高温。
5 min	Enter the forecast and an optional one-line reason; get the receipt; the teacher checks the cutoff.填预测和可选的一句理由,拿到回执;教师核对截止。
5 min	After the reveal: read the observation, compute the absolute error, name one method to change.揭晓后:看实测、算绝对误差、说一个想改变的方法。
2 min	The guardian sees a private summary and decides whether to continue.家长看到私密摘要,确认下一次是否继续。

Historical practice and real before-the-fact forecasts are always labelled separately.

Bonus units

Explore

ENSO knowledge graph

From trade winds to Boston's daily high: concepts, datasets, methods and lessons, each with sources.

从信风到波士顿日最高温:概念、数据集、方法与课程,每条都有来源。

Reference model bench

Nine models from persistence to a simple ensemble, run live on real Boston data.

从持续性到简单集成的九个模型,在真实 Boston 数据上实时运行。

Glossary

Bilingual terms used across the season, with the unit that teaches each.

本季使用的双语术语,并注明在哪个单元学习。

Teacher kit

One-page handbook, task card, judging card, reading-card template and a 90-minute workshop.

一页手册、任务卡、判读卡、阅读卡模板和 90 分钟工作坊。

Parent guide

What your child does, how to read an error, privacy and what you can ask the organizer.

孩子做什么、怎么看误差、隐私,以及可以向组织者提的问题。

Data sources

Every dataset shown in the Hub with its origin URL and sha256 fingerprint.

学习中心展示的每个数据集及其来源网址与 sha256 指纹。

Math map

The season practises these points from the RUDO math breakpoint system (m510). Each code names a place where learners often get stuck; the units give them a real reason to get unstuck.

本季练习的数学点来自 RUDO 数学断点体系(m510)。每个代码对应一个学生常卡住的地方;各单元给了他们一个真实的理由去突破。

Code	Plain-language name	Units

Four honest boundaries

Synthetic and real data are always labelled apart.
One round does not show skill.
"Cannot tell" is not the same as "does not exist".
Records have their own biases (for example, weaker snowstorms were rarely ranked before 2000), so the challenge only uses variables measured the same way throughout.

合成与真实数据永远分开标注。
单轮成绩不说明技能。
「看不出」不等于「不存在」。
记录本身有偏差(例如较弱的雪暴在 2000 年前很少被排名),所以赛题只用口径一致的变量。

Your progress (this browser only)

Progress, hints used and five-number cards are stored in localStorage on this device. Nothing is sent to a server. Clearing it cannot be undone.